The weather pattern in Washington State is causing major havoc when it comes to predicting the upcoming Washington State cherry crop. The estimated volumes and start dates are drastically different than first stated. The original start date was May 31st and then the June 5th date has come and gone. The crop estimate of 16.8 million boxes is now 13 million, and most likely will be lowered tomorrow when the state marketers have a conference call to discuss the crop issues.
Several marketers have suggested the first cherries to be harvested have been damaged by wind and rain. The story goes that the Chelan variety has 60% damage in some areas, and some shippers are predicting that they will not harvest any of the Chelan variety.
Not only has this growing season been challenged by rain and wind, but also a lack of heat units will hinder growth of the fruit, keeping the cherries from gaining good size. We could end up with a smaller crop, smaller fruit size, with an excessive amount of damage, with mixed color and maturity. The early bloom is one strong argument for mixed maturity due to the growth cycle. The cherries have to be picked by a certain date after the bloom. If the cherries are still lacking size and color, growers are forced to let the fruit hang and then maturity becomes an issue.
An interesting statistic I noticed was the “Total Solar Radiation “units are way off in all growing areas. According to an abstract report from the University of Arizona, solar radiation, the amount of light received, is the most limiting factor for plant growth. Plants require solar radiation for photosynthesis, and their growth rate is proportional to the amount received, assuming all other environmental factors are not limiting.
When looking at the “Total Solar Radiation” units in the growing areas, there is usually not a real difference from year to year. In most areas, the annual units would be around 4000 to 5000. In each growing area we reviewed this year, they have only received 1900 units. For example Mattawa units are at 1943.4 as of June 1st, 2010. The records that I found on www.weather.wsu.edu show that this year is about a third of what they normally would be. The bottom line is that the fruit is not sizing up and potentially could not be marketable due to its small size along with wind and rain damage. It is a long season so maybe this prediction will be incorrect; let’s hope so.